As the perfect storm buffets our foundations, there is still much shaking ahead.

As we have already stated in Part 1 and Part 2, the perfect storm is multi-faceted. 

In this post, we cite how the slow fade of casual Christianity in North America, and its
relationship to the economic reset of United Methodism, will ultimately work for our good.

As early as 2011, Dr. Lovett Weems was sounding the alarm in regard to the coming death
in the United Methodist Church.  Several articles were published around that time
regarding his sobering predictions of the future.

In the midst of the perfect storm, Dr. Weems predictions are beginning to come to pass. Within
the last six months, the United Methodist Church announced an eighteen percent cut in its
denominational budget, with an awareness of possible additional cuts looming in the future.

Today, the average age of a United Methodist across North America is 57 years old.  We face the
endemic challenge of missing generations as a denomination. As the prevailing winds of the
perfect storm blow, take the following facts into consideration:

“Only 45 percent of those raised in the Mainline Protestant tradition remain in Mainline
churches. Those whose parents and grandparents were mainline Protestants aren’t
carrying on the family tradition like those who align with other Protestant
denominations. Since members of these churches are not gaining new members from the
culture at-large, nor growing by birth rates, they continue to decline precipitously.”

As mainline Christianity declines precipitously, the decline is related to an additional reality
buffeting our foundations: The decline of casual Christianity.

Statistically, casual Christianity is a dying expression in North America. In describing the erosion
of the Christian middle
, one researcher states:

“We are not seeing the death of Christianity in America, but we are seeing remarkable
changes. Culture is shifting and the religious landscape is evolving. But, instead of the
funeral of a religion, at least in part we are witnessing the demise of casual and cultural
Christianity. And that is not necessarily a bad thing.” 

Casual Christianity, or the Christian middle, is often a pseudonym for acculturated Christianity.
There was a day in western culture when the general values of the mainline church were the
general values of the surrounding culture. This is sometimes referred to as acculturation. The
United Methodist Church, along with other mainline expressions of Christianity, had been able to
thrive in the atmosphere of the Christian middle for decades.  That day is fading. There are now
other factors buffeting our shores that undercut previous assumptions and paradigms. We are not
in Kansas anymore.

Much of our United Methodist bureaucracy is designed for a by-gone era.  This bureaucracy is
not designed to equip and support the church for effectiveness in reaching a post-Christian
culture. With the impending economic crises before us, characterized by declining mainline
, and the coming mitosis of the United Methodist Church, an economic recalibration
is inevitable.

This economic crisis of the perfect storm will force us to think much leaner fiscally, and with a
greater critical eye toward what is essential and effective. As a future Methodism navigates the
changing landscape of post-Christian America, embracing more of what is essential and effective
will ultimately work for our good.

Many of the tenets which North American United Methodism was built upon in the past 50 years
will not be what she can be built upon in the coming years. We are in the early stages of systemic
change brought on by the perfect storm.  And the perfect storm will work for our good, because
without true systemic change, we will remain paralyzed by an inability to adapt for what’s
needed for a new day.

Our next post will focus the fourth expression of the perfect storm: The Grossly Underestimated
Influence of the African Church and the Global South on North America and its Effects on
the Future of Methodism.

Paul Lawler is the Lead-Pastor of Christ Church UMC.  He and his wife, MJ, have four
children and one daughter-in-law.  In addition to serving as a pastor, Paul and his
brother, Dallas area businessman, Patrick Lawler, founded two Patricia B. Hammonds
Homes for orphans at high risk for human trafficking in Thailand. The homes are
operated through the international ministry of the 
Compassionate Hope Foundation.
Paul also serves on the boards of 
The WellhouseNew Water Farms, and the East Lake
. He often tweets Kingdom thoughts at @plawler111.